In financial centers around the world, it looks like Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak will easily win re-election this week.
“I expect this to be a non-event with Najib coming away with a resounding victory,” said Edwin Gutierrez, the London-based head of emerging-market sovereign debt at Aberdeen Standard Investments, which oversees 575.7 billion pounds ($821 billion) globally. “That is pretty much the overwhelming consensus from the market.”
But on the ground in Southeast Asia, there’s more uncertainty. Analysts and politicians on both sides of the aisle are warning of a close fight in the May 9 election as Najib’s coalition looks to extend its unbroken 61-year rule.
Najib last month predicted a better performance this time around compared with five years ago, when his Barisan Nasional coalition won 133 constituencies — roughly 59 percent of parliamentary seats — in its worst performance ever. Failure to improve may increase pressure from within his ruling United Malays National Organisation party to step aside.
This time he’s facing a four-party opposition bloc led by Mahathir Mohamad, the country’s longest-serving leader who fell out with the ruling party. While Mahathir has demonstrated an ability to win Malay votes, his diverse coalition has at times struggled to present a cohesive message to voters.
Recent moves from Najib’s administration suggest some anxiety. Last month, authorities introduced a law to jail offenders who spread fake news, which has been criticized as an attempt to stifle dissent. Mahathir’s party was temporarily banned from campaigning and the government has redrawn electoral boundaries, an exercise which opposition lawmakers say will benefit the ruling coalition.
“If BN fails to gain a considerable margin from 133, then questions will continue if he is still the right man for the job from inside and outside his party,” said Asrul Hadi Abdullah Sani, an analyst from consultancy…
