Ten days in Karnataka over two extended trips still leaves you with the stamp of an “election tourist” but then that is my professional hazard, so here are my 10 takeaways of an election that could still end up confounding every pundit and pollster.
1) Karnataka is a mirror cracked
No two state elections are ever the same but in Karnataka, we have several elections taking place within the same state. As you travel from north to south, as I did, you are stunned by how quickly issues change as does the wondrous landscape. If water scarcity and the Mahadeyi river water sharing is a major issue in the Mumbai-Karnataka region of the north, then a distinct communal polarisation can be seen in the coastal belt. While south Karnataka farmers along the Cauvery basin still agonisingly recall two years of consecutive drought even while in Bengaluru, familiar cribs over crumbling infrastructure echo across middle-class colonies. Regional splits, income divides, rural urban fault-lines, Karnataka is a state lacking a pan-Karnataka narrative.
2) Vote for caste while casting your vote
The one factor that unites Karnataka is caste. The Hindi heartland can take some satisfaction that it isn’t just north India where caste arithmetic counts, the caste equations are just as embedded in the Kannadiga psyche. If the Vokkaliga Lingayat dominant caste equation has been a constant narrative in recent elections, this time it is the backward caste, Dalit, Muslim social engineering (AHINDA) strategy of chief minister Siddaramaiah that has created ripples. The priestly Veershaiva Lingayat versus “other” Lingayats, “left” versus “right” Dalits, Karnataka is trapped in a maze of caste identities. Dalits in particular hold the key in 2018: If there is a wider Dalit consolidation, then it could change political equations.
3) Money talks, so do mutts
Karnataka’s politics has seen a unique alignment of caste and community with cash and crime. The wealthy and powerful mutts (or religious seminaries) have their pockets of influence so do the even more cash rich politicians with their criminal records. While the media attention has been on the Reddy brothers – the mining barons of Bellary – the truth is that crime and corruption are great political equalisers in Karnataka.
Mysuru: clean and truly embracing.. when enlightened rulers focus on education, the future is secured. Today’s India could learn from yesterday’s Wodeyars! #ElectionsOnMyPlate pic.twitter.com/Z6HKWB68l3
— Rajdeep Sardesai (@sardesairajdeep) May 9, 2018
If the BJP has the Reddys, the Congress too has its fair share of netas who have been on the wrong side of the law. Corruption in Karnataka is perhaps more “de-centralised”: Almost every MLAs assets have dramatically increased when in power. (I did encounter an exception though: A Mangalore based MLA JL Lobo, a retired government servant, who actually appears a role model of financial integrity). And yes, most of the “criminal” netas are expected to win easily.
4) Siddaramaiah and the return of the regional satrap
There was a time when state politics were fought by all powerful regional “bosses”. Indira Gandhi’s imperious “high command” culture in the 1970s destroyed the idea of “independent” chief ministers in national parties, paving the way for the rise of regional party assertion.
Ironically, one of those Congress chief ministers harshly dealt with by Mrs Gandhi was Karnataka’s original backward caste hero Devraj Urs. Now, Siddaramaiah is attempting an Urs 2.0 brand of backward caste assertion and virtually running this election on his own pro-poor image.
This is a rooted politician who has come up from taluka-level battles: He is on first name basis with virtually every sarpanch he meets. Politics for him is a “take no prisoners” style “kushti”: from waving the flag of Kannadiga sub nationalism to dividing castes to a slew of freebie schemes, Siddaramaiah has been a neta on steroids in the last 18 months. Win or lose, he has provided a template for the revival of netas who seek to break away from the Delhi durbar. Speaking in English does him disservice. Listen to him in Kannada and you realise how disconnected the English-speaking elite are from “real” India. And yes, if he does win, he owes a debt not to Basavanna, the Lingayat icon, but to NTR and MGR/Jayalalithaa, towering southern India politicians who realised early enough that cheap food for the poor is a route to power, this could well be the “Anna bhagya” or cheap rice election.
5) Yeddyurappa as BJP CM a mistake?
Well, yes and no. If Siddaramiah is almost a local folk hero, Yeddyurappa too once was an iconic figure, especially for the Lingayats. The past tense is necessary. The BJP leader has seen better days.
At 75, he is tiring and the years of being accused of corruption and even going to jail have taken their…
