In W W Jacob’s popular short story The Monkey’s Paw, the protagonist gets a monkey’s paw that would grant him three wishes. His first wish is that he gets a hundred dollars. The poor man, however, has no idea what is in store for him. His only son is killed in a factory accident and the factory owners give a hundred dollars to the bereaved parents as compensation. The larger message of the story is very simple – be careful what you wish for.
While watching the near delirious reaction of Congress supporters as well as members of mainstream media as Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) failed to prove majority on the floor of the Karnataka assembly, thereby paving way for Congress to retain power in the state, reminded me of this old story. I have long maintained that it is in democracy’s interest that BJP has a strong opposition and that means BJP and its base need to take a few losses on the chin in the larger interests of the country. I am not convinced however, that this is a win that would help Congress in the long run.
To start with, forming a government has swept the enormity of reversals the party has suffered in the state. Congress didn’t win Karnataka. They didn’t even do well. They lost a little over a third of their MLA strengths, their chief minister lost one seat by a wide margin and won the other with the skin of his teeth. Nearly half of the cabinet members lost their seats. This loss in a South Indian state against a supposedly ‘Hindi speaking’ party like BJP ought to have set the alarm bells ringing inside Congress. Instead, the starved for win party leadership and cadres are busy celebrating. Past experiences tell us that Congress hasn’t learnt its lessons even when handed crushing defeats, I won’t hold my breath over them introspecting after getting power.
As a corollary to the above, this victory would also most likely postpone a much needed internal assessment of Rahul Gandhi’s leadership. The old guard with sympathetic mainstream media are already hailing Gandhi’s genius at forging this post-poll coalition, reaffirming the old Congress tradition of ‘win because of Gandhis, loss because of someone else’. Even assuming for a moment that all credit given to the Congress president is well deserved (a generous assumption), the lesson from Karnataka is that Gandhi is only effective when the situation is close as it was in the state. He is yet to win an election outright on his own unlike his principle opponent Narendra Modi, who has delivered more often than not come election time. A loss in Karnataka might just have been the final nudge the beleaguered Congress needed to finally hold Gandhi responsible for an electoral loss. With the opportunity gone now, Congress goes into the next 12 months with a campaigner, who can’t win elections but still has one win to silence dissent.
Most importantly perhaps, by ceding the CM’s post to a regional party with lesser number of Members of Legislative Assembly (MLAs) than it, Congress has all but admitted that it won’t lead a possible coalition against Modi’s National Democratic Alliance (NDA) juggernaut in 2019. Apart from Punjab, the only two electoral successes Congress has tasted (Bihar and Karnataka) have both come when they have played junior partners to regional satraps. It is impossible that other aspirants in opposition are not taking notes. Already West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee’s tweet mentions the Janata Dal (Secular) of JD(S) leaders by their names while not acknowledging Gandhi or local Congress leaders in a similar manner. Congress’s desperation to keep BJP out of power has pushed them into accepting this position and unlike in past, the party won’t find it easy to turn the tables on its allies. Couple of weeks ago Gandhi mentioned that he was…
