Washington (CNN)President Donald Trump on Tuesday can land his most devastating blow yet on the legacy of Barack Obama, but a move to pull out of the Iran nuclear deal could also spark a dangerous global crisis.
It gives him the chance to cement his “America First” philosophy but risks triggering unknowable consequences that in a worst case scenario could lead to war with Iran.
The decision gives the President a choice. Does he follow his instincts and honor a campaign promise to his loyal political base? Or does he risk dealing a severe rebuke to US allies who back the deal by re-imposing US sanctions on Iran?
Alternatively, he could claim the headline of refusing to continue waiving sanctions against Iran, but stop short of imposing new punishments immediately. That could keep open a narrow window for America’s European allies to continue trying to broker a broader deal that could keep Trump on board.
Given that Trump’s gut usually wins out over his concern for America’s friends or complicated calculations of geopolitical ramifications down the road, it’s no surprise most people think he will pull out of the deal.
“It’s pretty obvious to me that unless something changes in the next few days, I believe the President will not waive the sanctions,” CNN’s Jim Sciutto quoted a European diplomat as saying.
“And that will have various consequences that I think we have yet to fully to understand and spell out.”
Leaving the deal would represent another sharp turn away from the multilateral diplomacy that underpinned Obama’s foreign policy and America’s approach to the world for much of the 20th Century.
It would also introduce an illogical note into Trump’s own diplomatic strategy, since he would be withdrawing from one nuclear deal with a US enemy, while trying to negotiate another, with North Korea.
Yet Trump, who last month called the deal “insane” and “ridiculous” is notoriously unpredictable. He could still spring a surprise.
So all eyes in Washington, Tehran, Beijing, Moscow and EU capitals will be focused on the White House at 2 p.m. ET when he will stand in the global spotlight — where he loves to be — to make his announcement.
Trump has been teasing his decision for days and may have given a hint of his intentions on Monday when he slammed former secretary of state John Kerry and his reported initiative to save the deal.
“The United States does not need John Kerry’s possibly illegal Shadow Diplomacy on the very badly negotiated Iran Deal. He was the one that created this MESS in the first place!” Trump tweeted.
If Trump does decide to pull out of the Iran agreement, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, it will be because he thinks it’s the “worst deal in history.”
The President has frequently misrepresented the terms of the deal that froze Iran’s…
